Tea Leaves and America

[cahwyguy]

The age of American Exceptionalism is over. Tr*mp, and his administration, killed it.

Over the weekend, I’ve been reading the tea leaves, so to speak, and thinking about America’s future and the impact of Tr*mp, 45/47. My conclusion is that Tr*mp is serving as the catalyst that moves American from the “Shining Beacon on the Hill” to a sovereign nation, like any other. Let me explain.

For much of its history, America was just like any other sovereign nation. But during the 20th Century, thanks to WWI and WWII and what came right afterwards, America assumed a leading position among other countries. Thanks to the work of folks like Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Johnson, America began a leader. We resolved worldwide conflicts. We were the leader in science, in medicine, in industry. Our statecraft resolved conflicts; our humanitarianism saved lives. We were the refuge for those persecuted. We were a beacon of justice, a nation where liberty and justice was truly FOR ALL.

Donald Tr*mp, and his minions, have killed that in a few short months. It is unclear if we will ever climb back up that mountain; indeed, to listen to a large portion of the country, they don’t want us to climb back. They think “America First”, but by that they mean “America isolated and self-sufficient”. In that isolation, they don’t realize what they have lost. Here are some examples.

• Europe. Tr*mp’s horrendous treatment of Ukraine and Zelinsky, who has been a long term ally and who had agreed to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for promises of American protection, has stunned Europe. More importantly, it has spurred Europe into action. The nations of Europe, working together, are developing a peace plan for the region and will present it to the US and Russia. Europe is also planning to spend more for its own defense (defence), realizing it can no longer depend on America. Is that good or bad? Hard to say, but it does mean that America is no longer the leader in that region that it once was. It is also bad for American defense companies, who were making a lot of money selling arms and munitions to Europe. If America is untrustworthy and imposing tariffs, they may also decide that locally-made is better.
• Middle East. Tr*mp’s notion of buying Gaza and turning it into a resort has pushed the Arab nations into action, and they are meeting to devise their own plan for the rebuilding of Gaza. This would push out Hamas, and install a new Palestinian Authority 2.0 to govern the region. This could ultimately be a good thing and might bring stability to the region, although the longer term impact on Israel is harder to say. But, I think, if Gaza and the West Bank are governed by a group with no Hamas ties, backed by all the other Arab nations (including those Israel has peaceful relations with), there might be a solution. But the key thing is: America will be on the sidelines of that solution.
• North America. Tr*mp’s treatment of Canada and Mexico may very well draw these two countries into a tighter alliance, if only for protection. This alliance could spread to the other democratic nations of Central and South America. None of these countries trust Tr*mp.
• Medicine. RFK Jr. has shut down medical science at NIH, and slowed work on new vaccines. But the health issues will not go away, and others will pick up the slack. I expect to see European consortiums and private industry establishing standards. I see the UN taking a role in selecting the flu vaccine for each year. I see other nations picking up the skills to investigate pandemics and develop solutions. In short, the Tr*mp administration’s abandoning of health science will remove America from the leadership position and make it a follower, just like most nations. America will become, at best, a middle-tier nation instead of the leader in technology and research.
• Science. Tr*mp’s shutdown of research at NSF and similar agencies will have significant impact on America’s standing in the research community. We will lose funding for students in the industries to attend conferences and learn from others. We will see less research funded. The net impact of this is that other countries will pick up the slack and the leadership. We’re already seeing this with research from China and South Korea, and we will likely see similar growth from India. This adds to the already strong work coming out of Europe and the FSB countries. Remember that this research has been the source of American innovation — not just NSF research, but research done through groups like DARPA and for DOD projects — and this American innovation is what created things like the Internet. No more. The next big innovations will likely come from somewhere else. America as the innovation leader will be no more.
• Weather. Tr*mp may gut NOAA and the NWS because he is afraid of climate change research, but weather and climate isn’t going away. Other nations will pick up the slack and the science, and will become the leaders in the field. This is an area I can see Canada picking up the mantle, especially for North America, because accurate weather is required for commerce. In the short term, there will be big impacts in lack of preparation for incoming storms, and people will be killed.  This will also impact the American aviation industry; pilots and air traffic controllers depend on accurate weather information to establish flight plans.  Shipping depends on ocean weather. Our commerce will suffer.
• Humanitarian Aid. People have, and will, die in response to Tr*mp’s abandonment of USAID and similar support. This creates a void that other countries will step in to fill — most notably, China. This is what is referred to as Soft Power, and China excels at this. It will move more countries into alliance with countries like China, India, and Brazil, and reduce America’s influence. NGOs will also pick up the slack, as will faith-based initiatives.

In the longer term, Tr*mp’s initiatives may well do some of what he wants: Isolate America, make America focused on itself. It may reduce some spending, but nothing all that significant. It will certainly increase the grift and fraud from the American oligarchs, but that’s the subject of a future blog post. It will increase the power of Russia, especially as the US reduces the efforts it was taking to stop the interference of Russia in US affairs, where Russia has long wanted to interfere in our elections and control our computer systems.

Will it make America Great Again? No. It will make America less significant globally. We’ll be just another nation, not the leader of the free world. Tr*mp will have abandoned that mantle, and he will have abandoned it in such a way that we never might get it back completely.

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